A new poll by Bendixen & Amandi International for the Miami Herald, el Nuevo Herald, WLRN, and Univision 23 has found Hillary Clinton drawing support from 20% of Republican voters in Miami-Dade County in the likely presidential match-up between her and Donald Trump. That seemed significant. We asked our polling expert to find out if it is.
Not only are one-fifth of Republican voters prepared to support Hillary, but she’s taking so much support that Donald Trump now does not have majority Republican support in Miami-Dade. Only 48% of respondents indicated support for Trump, while nearly a third remain undecided.
There’s still a long way to go before the November election, but as observed by pollster Fernand Amandi, a Democrat unaffiliated with a presidential campaign: “This should be an early sign of potential concern and worry for the Trump campaign. If she gets 20 percent of Republican voters statewide, it’s going to be a very early night on Nov. 8.”
Anthony Reed of BNR’s Benchmark Politics provides a statistical analysis, comparing the support Hillary is currently getting in Miami-Dade to what President Obama drew in 2008 election, to determine whether these numbers are significant.
Comparing Hillary’s numbers (at this point) to then-candidate Barack Obama’s in 2008, she has 1% greater support from Republicans than he did on Election Day. (During Obama’s reelection, that number declined, as would be expected for a sitting Democratic president.)
Hillary’s numbers may change before the election. But it’s entirely possible, given Miami-Dade’s large Latinx population and the high percentage of undecided voters, that her support among Republican voters will improve.
Reed notes: “Twenty percent support assumes that none of the 32% of undecideds go to her, which is pretty clearly not going to happen.”
Right now, her floor in the polling is 20%. It could conceivably go up, making for a remarkable outcome in Miami-Dade and potentially the entire state of Florida. Of course, it’s still early, so Democrats should take nothing for granted.