Did Bernie Sanders win the Latino vote in Nevada? If you trusted the national media, you’d certainly arrive at that conclusion.
Here’s what we actually know, starting with Nate Cohn, who “covers elections, polling and demographics for The Upshot, a Times politics and policy site.”
Dara Lind at Vox:
An early wave of entrance polling showed Sanders beating Clinton by 11 points with Latinos. A later wave showed him winning by 8. What really happened? We might not ever know for sure. But if you look at the possible scenarios — and at the entrance and exit polls’ record with Latinos — the most plausible conclusion is that the entrance polls didn’t correctly predict Nevada’s Latino vote.
What we do know of the official voting results — broken down by caucus site and by region — indicates that Hillary Clinton won the parts of Nevada that are most heavily Latino.
Even the NY Times undermines its own front page assertion:
According to entrance polls by Edison Research, [Sanders] was ahead of Mrs. Clinton among Hispanics. These numbers may not reflect the final vote tally, however, because Mrs. Clinton was performing strongly in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods around Clark County, which encompasses Las Vegas. Mrs. Clinton won 60 percent of the delegates in the 22 Latino-majority precincts that had reported results on Saturday night, according to her campaign aides.
And NBC provides context:
Francisco Pedraza, an assistant professor of political science at Texas A&M University said it’s likely that the exit polls are overstating the vote for Bernie Sanders. “This is a perennial problem election cycle after cycle. In my research, I find that exit polls have a real discrepancy in representativeness of the overall look of Latino voters”, said Pedraza.
In response to an official release from the Sanders camp touting the questionable entrance poll, the Clinton team didn’t mince words:
So why would major media publications confidently assert to their readers that Bernie won the Latino vote?
Double standards, that’s why.