There are still three months left until the general election so we shouldn’t get overconfident about August polls. But at the moment, things look encouraging for Senate Democrats.


Some of the most critical Senate races this election are those in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Florida, where Democrats are challenging Republican incumbents — and we have some positive new post-convention polls from each of those states.

The latest Susquehanna poll has Pennsylvania’s Katie McGinty inching ahead of Pat Toomey, 42% to 40%. The Franklin & Marshall College poll has McGinty leading Toomey, 39%-38%, while the PPP PA poll shows Toomey leading 42-41%. But McGinty is leading by a significant margin, 38%-30%, among registered voters. (Which is obviously good.)

McGinty SQ poll 8.8

In New Hampshire, the WBUR poll shows Kelly Ayotte’s “vote for, but not endorse Trump” strategy has left her trailing by 10%, with Maggie Hassan leading 50% to 40%.

And in Florida, where a Democratic nominee has yet to be selected, the Suffolk Poll finds Marco Rubio leading against a generic Democrat, 46% to 32%. Once a nominee is decided, those numbers will tighten. It’s already a remarkably close contest, given a Republican incumbent who should presumably benefit from a national presidential run, and a Democratic primary yet to determine a specific challenger.

Remember: While Democrats definitely got a strong bump from their convention, this is still only a snapshot of the moment. But it’s an encouraging snapshot, especially as we look forward with the hope of reclaiming a Senate majority in November.

2016 senate polls

[Analysis and data provided by Anthony Reed of Benchmark Politics.]

(Photo CC-BY-SA-3.0/Matt H. Wade at Wikipedia)